How the calculation actually works
The triple lock is simpler than its reputation. Each autumn the government looks at three numbers and applies the largest of them to the State Pension from the following 6 April:
- CPI inflation for September. Not the annual average, and not the most recent month - specifically the September figure, published in October.
- Average earnings growth for May to July. This is the ONS Average Weekly Earnings measure of total pay including bonuses across the whole economy, published in September.
- 2.5%. A flat floor that applies when both of the other measures come in lower.
Because it takes the highest of the three every year rather than an average, the lock ratchets. In a year when prices rise faster than wages, pensioners get the price increase; in a year when wages rise faster, they get the wage increase; and when both are weak they still get 2.5%. Over a run of years that compounds into growth ahead of both measures, which is precisely why the policy is both popular and expensive.
- 1 Is earnings growth for May to July 2026 above CPI and above 2.5%?→ Then earnings sets the increase. This has been the deciding measure in four of the last five years, including the 4.8% applied in April 2026.
- 2 Is September 2026 CPI the highest of the three?→ Then inflation sets it. This last happened for 2023/24, when September 2022 CPI of 10.1% produced the largest increase in the history of the State Pension.
- 3 Are both below 2.5%?→ Then the 2.5% floor applies. This last happened for 2021/22, when the pandemic pushed measured earnings negative and CPI to 0.5%.
The 2027 timetable: when you will know
The April 2027 increase is not a matter of government discretion once the data lands - it falls out of the formula. The dates that matter are:
- September 2026: the ONS labour market release publishes average weekly earnings growth for May to July 2026. This is the number that has decided the uprating in most recent years.
- October 2026: the September 2026 CPI figure is published. At this point the triple lock outcome is effectively settled.
- Autumn Budget 2026: the government confirms the new rates formally, alongside the wider benefits uprating.
- 6 April 2027: the new rates take effect. Because the State Pension is paid four-weekly in arrears, the first payment you receive at the new rate will usually be a blend of the old and new weekly amounts - see State Pension payment dates.
What April 2027 could pay
Nothing below is confirmed. The table shows what the full new State Pension would become at a range of plausible upratings, starting from the current £241.30 a week. The official working assumption used in government projections is earnings growth of 3.4% against CPI of 2.3%, which would make 3.4% the operative figure.
| If the increase is | Why that might happen | Weekly | A year | Above the allowance by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | The floor, if both CPI and earnings come in lower | £247.35 | £12,862.20 | £292.20 |
| 3.0% | A softer earnings outturn | £248.55 | £12,924.60 | £354.60 |
| 3.4% | The current official projection for earnings growth | £249.50 | £12,974.00 | £404.00 |
| 4.0% | If earnings growth holds up | £250.95 | £13,049.40 | £479.40 |
| 4.8% | A repeat of the April 2026 increase | £252.90 | £13,150.80 | £580.80 |
Weekly figures rounded to the nearest 5p, as DWP does. Annual figures are the weekly rate multiplied by 52. Projections only - the confirmed rates come at the Autumn Budget.
2027 is the year the State Pension passes the tax threshold
This is the part that matters most, and it is arithmetic rather than politics. The full new State Pension is currently £12,547.60 a year. The income tax personal allowance is £12,570. The gap between them is £22.40.
The State Pension rises every April under the triple lock. The personal allowance does not rise at all: it has been frozen at £12,570 since April 2021, and the Budget in 2025 extended that freeze by a further three years to 5 April 2031. So an uprating of roughly 0.2% is enough to take the full new State Pension above the allowance - which means any triple lock outcome, even the 2.5% floor, does it in 2027/28.
The Chancellor has confirmed that pensioners whose sole income is the basic or new State Pension will not be asked to pay income tax on it through Simple Assessment during this Parliament. In practice that means someone with nothing but the State Pension should not receive a tax bill for the small amount above the allowance.
That protection does not extend to anyone with other income. If you have a workplace pension, an annuity, savings interest above your allowances, rental income or earnings, the whole of your State Pension counts towards your taxable income as usual, and the amount above £12,570 is taxed at your marginal rate through your tax code.
Situation: Alan gets the full new State Pension and a modest workplace pension of £6,000 a year. He has always paid a little income tax through his workplace pension's tax code.
- In 2026/27 his total income is £18,547.60 against a £12,570 allowance, so £5,977.60 is taxed at 20%, about £1,195.
- If the State Pension rises 3.4% in April 2027, his State Pension goes up by about £426 a year.
- But because the allowance is frozen, all of that increase is taxable. He keeps roughly £341 of it and HMRC takes about £85 through a tax code adjustment.
- The Chancellor's Simple Assessment commitment does not help Alan, because the State Pension is not his only income.
If you want to see exactly how the bands apply to your own mix of income, our guide to tax on the State Pension works through it, and pension drawdown tax has a calculator that stacks pension withdrawals on top of the State Pension.
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What the triple lock has actually paid
| Tax year | Increase | Set by | Full new SP weekly | A year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 4.8% | Earnings | £241.30 | £12,547.60 |
| 2025/26 | 4.1% | Earnings | £230.25 | £11,973.00 |
| 2024/25 | 8.5% | Earnings | £221.20 | £11,502.40 |
| 2023/24 | 10.1% | CPI inflation | £203.85 | £10,600.20 |
| 2022/23 | 3.1% | CPI (earnings link suspended) | £185.15 | £9,627.80 |
| 2021/22 | 2.5% | The 2.5% floor | £179.60 | £9,339.20 |
Over those five years the full new State Pension has risen from £179.60 to £241.30 a week, an increase of about 34%. Earnings has been the deciding measure in four of the five, which is a reminder that the triple lock is really an earnings lock most of the time, with an inflation backstop for years like 2023.
For 2022/23 the earnings element was suspended by the Social Security (Uprating of Benefits) Act 2021. Pandemic distortions - furlough ending, hours rebounding - had pushed the measured earnings figure above 8% in a way that did not reflect genuine wage growth. Parliament legislated to disapply the earnings limb for one year and the State Pension rose by 3.1%, the September CPI figure, instead. It is the only time since 2011 that the full triple lock has not applied.
What the triple lock does not cover
The headline percentage does not apply to every pound of every pension. This is the most common misunderstanding about the lock, and it means plenty of people receive a smaller increase than the news reports suggest.
- Covered by the triple lock: the full new State Pension and the basic State Pension.
- Uprated by CPI only: Additional State Pension, meaning the old SERPS and State Second Pension, plus any protected payment you hold above the full new rate. If a meaningful slice of your pension comes from these, your overall rise will be below the headline figure.
- Not uprated at all: your State Pension if you live in a country with no uprating agreement with the UK. Around 450,000 pensioners have a frozen State Pension fixed at the rate when they left. See the State Pension abroad.
- Decided separately each year: Pension Credit. The standard minimum guarantee has recently tracked earnings, reaching £238.00 a week for a single person in 2026/27, but that is an annual policy choice rather than a statutory lock.
Will the triple lock survive?
There is no legislation to remove it, and both main parties committed to keeping it at the last election. The pressure on it is fiscal rather than political: because the lock takes the highest of three measures every year, it raises the State Pension faster than either prices or wages over any long run, and the cost compounds as the pensioner population grows.
The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Institute for Fiscal Studies have both set out the arithmetic, and most serious reform proposals involve smoothing rather than abolition - for example a "double lock" of the higher of prices and earnings, or a lock applied to a multi-year average. A separate lever is State Pension age, which is reviewed roughly every six years and is the tool governments have historically reached for when the cost of the system rises. Our State Pension age timetable covers where that stands.
For planning purposes, the sensible assumption is that the State Pension keeps broadly pace with earnings, that the personal allowance stays frozen until at least 2031, and that a growing slice of the State Pension therefore becomes taxable for anyone with other income.
- House of Commons Library - State Pension triple lock (CBP-7812)
- House of Commons Library - Benefits Uprating 2026/27 (CBP-10403)
- GOV.UK - Maintaining the Personal Allowance and basic rate limit until 5 April 2031
- ONS - Average weekly earnings in Great Britain
- Institute for Fiscal Studies - What are the effects of the triple lock?
Frequently asked questions
- What is the State Pension triple lock?
- It is the rule that decides how much the State Pension rises each April. The increase is the highest of three measures: consumer price inflation in the September before, average earnings growth across May to July, or 2.5%. Because it takes the highest of the three rather than an average, the State Pension tends to grow faster than either prices or wages over time. It applies to the full new State Pension and the basic State Pension, but not to every part of the system - Additional State Pension and protected payments rise by CPI only.
- How much will the State Pension rise in April 2027?
- It is not confirmed yet. The official working assumption used in government projections is 3.4% earnings growth against 2.3% CPI, which would make 3.4% the triple lock figure and take the full new State Pension from £241.30 to about £249.50 a week. The actual number depends on the ONS average earnings figure for May to July 2026, published in September 2026, and the September 2026 CPI figure published in October. The rates are normally confirmed at the Autumn Budget and take effect on 6 April 2027.
- When is the April 2027 State Pension increase announced?
- In stages. The average earnings figure for May to July 2026 comes out in the ONS labour market release in September 2026. The September 2026 CPI inflation figure follows in October 2026. At that point the triple lock outcome is effectively known, because it is simply the highest of those two numbers and 2.5%. The government then confirms the rates formally, usually in the Autumn Budget, and they take effect from 6 April 2027.
- Will I have to pay tax on my State Pension from 2027?
- For most people with only the State Pension, no. The full new State Pension is £12,547.60 a year in 2026/27, just £22.40 below the £12,570 personal allowance, and any uprating above about 0.2% pushes it over the line in 2027/28. The Chancellor has confirmed that pensioners whose sole income is the basic or new State Pension will not be asked to pay income tax on it through Simple Assessment during this Parliament. If you have any other income at all, though, the excess is taxable in the normal way through your tax code.
- Why is the personal allowance still £12,570?
- It has been frozen at that level since April 2021 and the freeze has now been extended twice. The Budget in 2025 extended it by a further three years, so the personal allowance stays at £12,570 until 5 April 2031 - a full decade at the same figure. Because the State Pension rises every April under the triple lock while the allowance stands still, the gap between them closes each year. HMRC estimates the extended freeze brings around 700,000 more people into income tax by 2030/31.
- Does the triple lock apply to the whole of my State Pension?
- No, and this catches people out. The triple lock applies to the full new State Pension and the basic State Pension. Additional State Pension - the old SERPS and State Second Pension - and any protected payment above the full new rate are uprated by September CPI only. So if part of your pension comes from a protected payment, your overall increase will normally be smaller than the headline triple lock percentage.
- Has the triple lock ever been suspended?
- Once. For 2022/23 the earnings element was suspended by the Social Security (Uprating of Benefits) Act 2021, because pandemic distortions had pushed the measured earnings figure to over 8% in a way that did not reflect real wage growth. The State Pension rose by 3.1% that year, based on September CPI, instead. Every other year since 2021 the full triple lock has applied.
- Will the triple lock be scrapped?
- There is no legislation to remove it and both main parties committed to keeping it at the last election, but its long-term cost is contested. The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Institute for Fiscal Studies have both pointed out that because the lock takes the highest of three measures each year, it ratchets the State Pension upwards relative to both prices and wages over time, at a cost that grows with the pensioner population. Most reform proposals involve a smoothed or "double lock" alternative rather than outright abolition.
- How much has the State Pension risen since 2021?
- The full new State Pension has gone from £179.60 a week in 2021/22 to £241.30 in 2026/27, an increase of about 34% over five years. The biggest single jump was 10.1% in April 2023, driven by the September 2022 CPI figure at the peak of the inflation spike, followed by 8.5% in April 2024 from earnings growth. The two most recent increases have been more modest at 4.1% and 4.8%.
- Does the triple lock affect Pension Credit too?
- Partly. The Pension Credit standard minimum guarantee has in recent years been uprated by earnings, which is why it rose in step with the State Pension to £238.00 a week for a single person and £363.25 for a couple in 2026/27. But that is a policy decision made each year rather than a statutory triple lock, and other elements of Pension Credit such as Savings Credit are uprated differently. Do not assume every pensioner benefit moves by the headline triple lock figure.